Some pundits think the 2020 U.S. presidential election could be 2016 all over again with President Donald J. Trump (R-Florida) winning by a razor-thin margin.
I first dismissed these claims as sensationalism. Then I looked at the poll numbers and decided commentators such as Rising’s Krystal and Saagar could be onto something. Some election numbers bear an odd resemblance to those of 2016.
For example, Emerson Polling estimates Trump was leading Joe Biden (D-Delaware) 48% to 46% or 2% in North Carolina on August 8-10, 2020. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary R. Clinton (D-New York) by 3.6%, or 49.9% to 46.2%, in North Carolina The New York Times calculates.
Is it 2016 all over again?
So yes, there are numbers that show it could be 2016 all over again but only for the President.
In the 2020 North Carolina governor’s race polling , Emerson estimates incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper was leading Republican Dan Forest by 6% or 50% to 44%. In 2016 North Carolina governor’s race, Cooper beat Republican Pat McCrory by just 0.2% or 49% to 48.8%, The New York Times estimates.
In the 2020 North Carolina U.S. Senate polling, challenger Cal Cunningham (D) is beating U.S. Senator Thom Tills (R) by 2% or 44% to 42%. In the 2016 North Carolina U.S. Senate race, Richard M. Burr (R) beat Democrat Deborah Ross by 5.7% or 51.1% to 45.4%.
There is Enormous Good Will for President Trump
I think the North Carolina polls offer two revelations. First, there is enormous goodwill for President Trump in some quarters. Second, the goodwill for Trump does not extend to other Republicans.
Hence, voters like the President, but they dislike other Republicans. That could point to some bizarre outcomes in 2021. For example, we could have President Trump with a Democratic U.S. House and U.S. Senate. Think gridlock is terrible now, just wait until that occurs.
Thus, Republicans have a problem, but it is not Trump. Instead, Republicans greatest problem is that ordinary voters in states the GOP should own such as North Carolina hate them.
Indeed, the polls show ordinary North Carolinians do not trust Republicans to lead their state. Republicans need to ask why.
Politicians need to fight for People
One reason North Carolinians support Governor Roy Cooper is that he will fight for them.
In May and June, Cooper opposed Trump’s efforts to hold the Republican national convention in North Carolina and bring tens of thousands of visitors to the Tar Heel State. Cooper opposed the convention because of the risk of spreading the coronavirus.
Hence, Cooper fought for ordinary North Carolinians and defended them from coronavirus. Now, the voters are repaying Cooper with a strong showing in the polls.
There is a lesson for politicians; such as Trump and US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-California), who refuse to oppose gatherings or institutions that could spread coronavirus. Voters will remember those fought for them and those who did not.
I think Trump, Pelosi, and Democratic Presidential nominee Joe Biden (D-Delaware) made a huge mistake by not opposing such questionable moves as the reopening of Disney theme parks. To explain, politicians did nothing to prevent a giant corporation from reopening attractions in the middle of coronavirus hot spots that could expose thousands of visitors who could travel all over the country to COVID-19.
Why Trump is Losing Florida
Notably, Biden is leading Trump in all the recent Florida polls FiveThirtyEight reveals. For instance, the July 20 to 23 Mason Dixon Polling & Strategy gave Biden a 4% or 50% to 46% lead over Trump in Florida.
Florida is the location of Walt Disney World, the largest Disney theme park. Florida has an enormous population of older people who are susceptible to coronavirus. For example, the US Census Bureau estimates 20.9% of Floridians were over 65 in July 2019.
President Trump did nothing to stop giant corporations from reopening resorts that could attract thousands of tourists to Florida and expose the state’s residents to a deadly disease. Now, Trump is losing the polls in Florida.
How Trump could Win Florida
I think Trump could be winning the Florida polls by 6% to 8% if he had publicly opposed Disney and Universal’s attempts to reopen their Orlando theme parks. Floridians who voted for Trump because they thought he was a strong leader, received no protection from the Donald.
Trump could lose the Sunshine State because of inaction. Moreover, Trump tried to move the Republican National Convention to Jacksonville despite opposition from that city’s leaders. Thus, Trump told Florida voters;” I don’t care about you and I won’t protect you.” I think those voters will repay Trump for that callousness on 3 November 2020.
Hence, Trump’s stupidity could cost him a state he should win. In fact, Trump won Florida by a margin of 48.6% to 47.4% or 1.2% in 2016, The New York Times estimates. Yet recent polls show Trump could lose Florida by a margin of 4% to 6%.
Tellingly, no Republican has won the presidency without Florida, since Calvin Coolidge (R-Massachusetts) in 1924. Thus, Trump’s lack of coronavirus action is destroying his reelection chances.
Yes, Trump is in Trouble
Thus, 2020 is not 2016 all over again in Florida. Since, both Florida and North Carolina are swing states; I conclude Trump is in trouble.
Moreover, Trump is losing other critical swing states. Including Wisconsin, the state some pundits credit for Trump’s 2016 victory.
For instance, the 11 August Marquette Law School poll shows Trump was losing the Wisconsin by a margin of 5%. In detail Marquette estimates 50% of Wisconsin residents supported Biden and 45% supported Trump.
In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by a margin of 47.2% to 46.5% or 0.7%. Hence, Trump could no longer be competitive in a state he won four years ago.
In Arizona, the 11 August 2020 Emerson Poll estimates Biden was leading Trump by a 7%, or 53% to 47% margin. In 2016, Trump beat Clinton by a margin of 3.5% or 48.1% to 44.6%. Thus, Trump could lose a state he won by a comfortable margin in 2016.
Trump is no Longer Competitive
In Pennsylvania, the August 11, 2020, Emerson Poll estimates Biden was beating Trump by a margin of 7% or 53% to 47%. In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by a margin of 48.2% to 47.5% or 0.7%. Thus, if Emerson is correct, Trump is no longer competitive in another state he won four years ago.
I think, 2020 only looks like 2016 again in one state North Carolina. Worse, it only looks like 2016 again for Trump in the Tar Heel state.
I predict Republicans will receive some nasty surprises on November 4, 2020. However, I think the GOP will have only itself to blame for those surprises. Republicans are losing states where they should be competitive in to Joe Biden, a lousy candidate, by margins of 7%.
Republicans beware the polls show 2016 is not 2020.
Originally published at https://marketmadhouse.com on August 21, 2020.