The result of Brexit will be an independent Scotland in the European Union, not a powerful and independent United Kingdom.
Scotland has already taken serious steps towards independence that I do not think Boris Johnson can stop. Those steps include:
Scotland Achieves Energy Independence
Scotland is on track to achieve 100% energy independence with renewable electricity by the end of 2020, Elektek claims. In fact, the Scots closed their last coal-fired power plant in 2016. Additionally, Scotland only has one gas-fired power plant.
Hence, Scotland could generate its own energy, and make money by selling energy (wind-turbine generated electricity) to the rest of the United Kingdom. Moreover, Scotland could make money by selling as and oil from the North Sea.
A Separate Immigration System
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is proposing a Scottish Visa, The Guardian reports.
Hence, Sturgeon wants to create a separate Scottish Immigration system in which the Scottish Parliament sets immigration policy. Under Sturgeon’s proposal the Scottish government will sponsor all applicants for the Scottish visa and screen visa applications.
Sturgeon hopes to counter Scotland’s falling population. In particular, the number of pensioners in Scotland will rise from 19% now of the population to 23% in 2043, The Guardian estimates. In addition, the percentage of working age people in Scotland will fall from 64% to 62%.
A Government and Parliament Dedicated to Independence
Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party (SNP) was the biggest winner in the December 2019 British General elections.
The SNP won 13 new seats in the UK parliament making it the third largest party in the House of Commons with 47 members. In addition, the SNP has a huge majority in the Scottish Parliament with 62 members. The collapse of Labour in Scotland benefits SNP. Labour only won one Scottish seat in December 2019.
Thus, the SNP could act as a power broker if Johnson’s government collapses. Johnson’s Conservatives are in a strong position with 365 members of parliament.
However, I think the Conservative majority could collapse if Brexit wrecks the British economy. Note I think the British economy will collapse if Johnson implements Brexit. Hence, Johnson could have sealed the Conservatives’ doom by embracing Brexit.
Yes, Boris Johnson will Embrace Scottish Independence
I think Boris Johnson will accept Scottish Independence for two reasons.
First, Johnson bases his support of Brexit on its legitimacy. Johnson considers Brexit legitimate because British voters approved it in a June 2016 referendum.
Therefore, Johnson has no argument against a new Scottish independence referendum. I think Boris will have no choice but to support a referendum because opposition will make him appear to be a hypocrite.
Johnson will try to avoid a Scottish independence referendum because I think such a proposal could trigger a political crisis that could destroy his government. To explain, I think many Conservatives will oppose a Scottish Independence referendum.
Second, Johnson will need the SNP’s 47 votes at some point. For instance, the SNP can force Johnson to support a referendum by offering to support Brexit if he agrees to a Scottish independence referendum.
I think such wheeling and dealing will be the next British political crisis and the end of Boris Johnson. Thus Johnson will end up feuding with British nationalists who want to preserve the United Kingdom at all costs.
The End of the United Kingdom?
The end of result of this process could be two separate countries on the island of Britain.
Those countries could be Scotland in the European Union and an independent England and Wales that is a nominal EU member. I do not know how this arrangement could work.
For instance, the UK could have two currencies; the pound and the Euro, and two immigration systems. Borders could be a greater problem if the Conservatives insist on customs and immigration checks on the Scottish border.
In the final analysis, I think an independent Scotland is more probable than most people think. Ironically, Boris Johnson could be the father of Scottish independence.