Andrew Yang came in third in an Emerson Poll of New Mexico Democratic Primary voters. However, Yang will not be in the next Democratic debate.
In fact, Yang beat both U.S. Senator Liz Warren (D-Massachusetts) and Pete Buttigieg (D-Indiana) in the New Mexico polling. In detail, the 3 January to 6 January Emerson Poll gives Yang 10%, Warren 8%, and Buttigieg 7%.
Yang will not be in the debate because New Mexico is not an “early primary state.” Instead, New Mexico voters will not go to the polls until June 2, 2020. To explain, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) requires candidates to win two debates in early primary states and meet fund raising goals to qualify for the debates.
Is the Democratic Debate a Joke?
Emerson’s New Mexico Poll raises serious questions about the whole debate process.
For instance, one candidate who will be at the debate billionaire; Tom Steyer (D-California), only received 1% of the vote in Emerson’s New Mexico survey. In addition, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota) received just 2%.;
In addition, another big candidate former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (?-New York) received 3% in Emerson’s New Mexico survey. Thus, Bloomberg received more support more than both Klobuchar and Steyer.
Therefore, I think a candidate who is not at the Democratic debate could win one or more primaries. A true embarrassment for the DNC will be a candidate making the debate and announcing his or her departure from the race.
Why Warren and Buttigieg could soon quit
Liz Warren, for example, could soon drop out. Remember, U.S. Senator Kamala Harris (D-California) quit after polls showed her behind Yang. For instance, the November 2019 Emerson Poll showed Harris at 3% nationally, and Yang at 4%. Harris bowed out in December.
Thus, I think there will be pressure on both Warren and Buttigieg to drop out because the race is close. U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont); for example leads in New Mexico by just 1%.
However, former Vice President Joe Biden (D-Delaware) was a close second. Emerson places Sanders at 28% and Biden at 27% in New Mexico.
Add Warren’s 8% to Bernie’s 28% and Sanders leads at 36%. Add Buttigieg’s 7% to Biden’s 27% and Joe leads at 34%.
The Left Owns the Democratic Party
I think New Mexico’s numbers show leftists will win the Democratic primary.
Adding the numbers for Warren, Yang, Sanders, and U.S. Representative Tulsi Gabbard (2%) and leftists receive 48% of the New Mexico vote. Add U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-New Jersey) to the mix and leftists get 50% of the vote in New Mexico.
In contrast add four moderates; Biden, Buttigieg, Steyer, and Klobuchar and you get 37%. If New Mexico is representative of the country, Biden and company cannot win.
Is the Democratic Debate Meaningless?
The New Mexico debate numbers show the Democratic debates could be meaningless political theater.
Intriguingly, one major candidate; Bloomberg, believes the debates are meaningless. Instead of debating in Iowa, Bloomberg was campaigning in Texas on 11 January 2020.
Bloomberg’s hope is that Texas and other high-population Super Tuesday states will pick the Democratic primary winner. To clarify, Super Tuesday is March 3, 2020, the day 13 states primary.
Therefore, Bloomberg thinks the early primary states such as Iowa are meaningless. I think Bloomberg’s hunch about Super Tuesday could be correct.
Notably, the nation’s two most populous states; Texas and California vote on Super Tuesday. For instance, Texas, had a population of 28.996 million people on 1 July 2019, The US Census Bureau estimates. Meanwhile, California had a population of 39.512 million people on the same day.
Bloomerg’s Fascinating Strategy
Yet most Democratic candidates are focusing on Iowa with a population of 3.155 million people in July 2019. Thus, Bloomberg is out where the voters are but most of the candidates are not.
Interestingly, Bloomberg has confidence in his strategy. The New York Times reports Bloomberg had spent over $200 million campaigning on 11 January 2020. In addition, Bloomberg claims he will spend $1 billion on the campaign.
Bloomberg is not a stupid man, he built a $58.4 billion fortune; and became the world’s eighth richest man, by correctly anticipating traders’ need for real-time financial data. Additionally, won three Mayor’s elections in New York City. That’s a real accomplishment for a guy from Boston.
However, Bloomberg is not the only person this strategy could benefit. I think the same circumstances could help Yang and Bernie rack up wins.
Does New Mexico show us who will win the Democratic Primary?
Strangely, I think New Mexico could show us how the Democratic presidential primary could turn out. New Mexico shares a number of characteristics with the California and Texas.
First, New Mexico is racially diverse. The US Census Bureau estimates New Mexico’s population was 49.1% Hispanic and 18% nonwhite on 1 July 2019.
The Census Bureau estimates California’s population was 27.9% nonwhite and 39.3% Hispanic on the same day. Plus, the Census Bureau calculates Texas’s population was 21.2% nonwhite and 39.6 Hispanic in July 2019.
In comparison, Iowa’s population was 9.3% nonwhite and 6.2% Hispanic in July 2019. Thus, Iowa has little in common with the big states that will pick the Democratic primary winner but New Mexico does.
New Mexico shows Bloomberg is smart to campaign in Texas and ignore Iowa. Thus, a man who ignored the debates could be the next Democratic presidential nominee.
The Democratic Primary will come down to Bernie, Biden, and Yang
However, I think the Democratic primary will come down to three candidates; Bernie, Biden, and Yang with Bloomberg as a dark horse disruptor.
I think Sanders, Joe, and Andrew, are the only candidates with staying power. Bloomberg could stick around because I think he will do well among middle class white voters in states such as Texas.
However, I think Bloomberg will face a problem when large numbers of his voters arrive at the polls and find his name is not on the Republican primary ballot. Therefore, a lot of Bloomberg’s efforts could be a waste of money.
I think the present electoral environment favors Sanders because the Democratic base is skewing left. Moreover, Bloomberg will probably take votes from Biden.
To explain, Biden and Bloomberg are going after the same voters older, less-educated whites with a minimal interest in politics. Thus, they could split the vote and create a big opening for Bernie who attracts younger and better-educated political junkies.
The Democratic Race could Come Down to Bernie and Bloomberg
In addition, Sanders is the strongest candidate with the best organization. Although, Yang is demonstrating some impressive capabilities. Bloomberg is showing a good strategy but we know nothing of his organization yet.
I predict there will be pressure for Bloomberg to drop out and back Biden. However, if Bloomberg does well, the Democratic establishment could pressure Biden to drop out and back Bloomberg.
Hence, the Democratic primary could come down to Bloomberg and Bernie if Yang drops out. I think Bernie will win because he has the left. I think Bloomberg is too right wing for the present Democratic Party. Plus, most Democratic voters will view Bloomberg’s money and status as a New York billionaire with suspicion.
In the final analysis, we could see a new primary politics emerge in 2020. In 2024, we could ignore Iowa and New Hampshire and only watch Super Tuesday. That will create a different Democratic Party and a different presidential election.
Originally published at https://marketmadhouse.com on January 13, 2020.