The United States could go to to war with Iran to avenge a September drone attack on Saudi Arabia.
On 14 September 2019, drones operated by Yemeni Houthi rebels attacked the Saudi oil processing facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais. In the attack, the Houthis; Iranian clients, reportedly knocked out over 50% of Saudi Arabia’s oil processing capability, MarketWatch claims.
On 3 January 2020, a US drone assassinated Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani. General Soleimani was the commander of the Quds Force; Iran’s Special Operations command. In addition, General Soleimani was in charge of covert operations outside of Iran.
Who was Major General Qassem Soleimani?
One way to think of General Soleimani was a real life Nick Fury.
To explain, Nick Fury is the Marvel Comics character who heads a covert paramilitary organization (SHIELD) that combines special operations with intelligence work. In American history the closest parallel to General “Wild Bill” Donovan” who commanded the Office of Strategic Services (OSS), America’s covert warfare organization during World War II.
Therefore, General Soleimani could have been behind the drone attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais. In September, U.S. Secretary of State of Mike Pompeo (R-Kansas) alleged Iran was behind the Abqaiq and Khurais attacks. However, U.S. President Donald J. Trump (R-Florida) said there was no evidence of Iranian involvement.
In September, Trump said the US response to the attacks will depend on the Saudi assessment of the situation, The Guardian reported. Consequently, I have to wonder if Trump was retaliating for the drone attacks by killing Soleimani.
Why is Trump Fighting Saudi Arabia’s War?
There are several reasons Trump could fight Saudi Arabia’s war with Iran.
First, the 14 September attacks show Saudi Arabia is defenseless against drone attacks. In fact, Saudi Arabia’s 313 fighter jets and 122 batteries of antiaircraft missiles were useless. Perhaps Trump is trying to deter further attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Second, a Middle Eastern war that destroys oil fields could be very good for America. Importantly, the United States became a net oil exporter for the first time in generations in September 2019, The Oil Price notes.
Third, higher oil prices could help Trump at the ballot box. Rising oil prices could boost the US economy at a time when Trump is facing a difficult reelection battle. In particular, Trump needs to win oil-producing states; such as Oklahoma and North Dakota, to spend another term in the White House.
Fourth, Trump will need the support of ant-Iranian war hawk Republicans in the U.S. Senate to survive impeachment. In particular, Trump will need to the help of such warmongers as Marco Rubio (R-Florida) and Lindsay Graham (R-South Carolina) to avoid impeachment.
An easy way to get the warmongers’ support is to start their war. The warmongers have been beating the drums for action against Iran for years. Perhaps General Soleimani’s death is a reward for the warmongers’ loyalty.
Is Trump a Saudi Puppet?
Fifth, reelection will be expensive and I think Trump will need every dollar he can raise.
The Saudis have a lot of money. The Kingdom’s national oil company; Saudi Aramco or the Saudi Arabian Oil Co (TADAWUL: 2222), reported profits of $111 billion in 2018, The Economic Times reports.
In addition, there are connections between Trump’s supporters and Saudi Arabia. Politico claims former Trump Small Business Administration (SBA) Linda McMahon heads the pro-Trump super political action committee (PAC) America First Action Super PAC.
How World Wrestling Entertainment Explains Trump and Saudi Arabia
An America First Action SuperPAC press release labels McMahon “Trump’s Big Money Boss.” McMahon is married to World Wrestling Entertainment (NYSE: WWE) CEO Vince McMahon Jr.
In November, the Saudi government paid WWE $60 million for its infamous Crown Jewel pay-per-view, Fox News reports. Currently, WWE has a contract to put on two pay-per-views a year in Saudi Arabia for eight years.
Cynics will wonder if the payments to WWE are a means of moving Saudi money to the America First Action SuperPAC. Tellingly, Soleimani’s assassination came less than two months after the $60 million payment.
In addition, Vanity Fair alleges Saudi government-funded lobbyists paid for 500 nights at the Trump International Hotel in Washington D.C. in 2016 and 2017. Bizarrely, American veterans stayed in the rooms.
Trump Puts Americans and Israelis at Risk
Frighteningly, Trump’s potentially pro-Saudi actions puts American service personnel and Israeli civilians in danger.
The Iranians already fired missiles at two U.S. bases in Iraq in retaliation for the Soleimani assassination, Al Jazeera reports. In addition, the Iranian government is threatening to attack Israel and another US ally Dubai to avenge General Soleimani, The Week reports.
In addition to missile and drone attacks, the Iranians could trigger terrorist attacks on Israel, Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and American bases. Notably, the Quds Force supports several terrorist groups in the region including Hezbollah. Hezbollah is threatening to attack Israel if the U.S. strikes Iran, The Jerusalem Post reports.
Hence, the supposed friend of Israel Trump is putting the Jewish state in danger. Consequently, supporters of Israel need to reconsider their backing of Trump. In addition, Trump is increasing the danger to U.S. forces in the Middle East and American allies in the region.
Only China will Win
An obvious result of the Trump war on Iran could be U.S. allies such as Dubai and Israel turning to Beijing for help. I think Trump could hand the Middle East to China.
The Chinese have leverage over Iran because they were staging naval maneuvers with the Iranians and Russians in December, Radio Free Europe reports. America has no leverage over Iran because Trump tore up President Barack Obama’s (D-Illinois) nuclear deal with Iran.
America has no trade, diplomatic relations or direct connections with Iran. Therefore, America’s only means of dealing with Iran is war.
Hence, the Chinese can protect Middle Eastern nations from Iran without war. Ask yourself, if you were a Middle Eastern leader which superpower would you court? That situation will force Trump to choose between signing a humiliating peace with Iran and pulling out of Iraq or war with Iran.
I think electoral politics could force Trump to make peace with Iran. To explain, I cannot imagine Trump winning reelection if war breaks out. Thus, events could force Trump to end sanctions; evacuate Iraq, and sign a new Iraq nuclear deal.
Congress needs to Investigate Trump and Saudi Arabia
Finally, Congress needs to forget about the Ukraine and concentrate its investigation on Saudi Arabia.
In particular, Congress needs to investigate Trump’s finances; the Trump family, and the Trump Organization, to see if they are receiving money from Saudi Arabia. In addition, Congress needs to investigate the WWE, the America First Action SuperAction PAC, and Linda McMahon. We need to know if Trump ordered an assassination to please a campaign donor.
The assassination of General Suleimani is illegal and an unconstitutional act of war, The American Conservative’s Daniel Larson notes. Thus I think Trump committed an impeachable offense in public by killing General Suleimani.
- S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-California) needs to change the articles of impeachment to removing Trump for the assassination. I think making impeachment about General Suleimani could force some anti-war Republicans; such as U.S. Senator Rand Paul(R-Kentucky), to vote for impeachment.
Are we going to war with Iran because of Saudi money?
America needs answers before our soldiers die in the Middle East. Are we going to war with Iran because of Saudi money?
One final thought here, I think the Quds Force is now honor bound to kill an American general in retaliation for General Suleimani’s death. Thus, some brave and smart American; who has sacrificed his or her chance to get rich at Goldman Sachs or McKinsey to serve his or her country, will die because of our draft dodger in chief’s short-sighted arrogance?
Consequently, I predict we will see large numbers of American generals and admirals announcing their retirements over the next few weeks. The commanders will quit because they do not want to die for Trump’s mistake. Predictably, a big salary at a defense contractor will be far more appealing than a grave at Arlington.
We need to ask is this illegal war and assassination worth it? Should we sacrifice our values, the lives of our service people, and our honor for Saudi dollars?
Originally published at https://marketmadhouse.com on January 9, 2020.