The $495 billion Statista predicts the global gambling industry will rake in, in 2019 demonstrates how irrational people are with money. Yet the prediction market operators claim their marketplaces can make rational decisions about human behavior. Consequently, I think present-day prediction markets cannot work. My guess is that prediction markets will need better data aggregation and analysis technology to work. Algorithms that could screen out human emotions or sentiments could make a prediction market effective. On the other hand, artificial intelligence or machine learning could soon provide that technology.
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